- Vitalik Buterin bets Bitcoin can adapt to AI-driven security threats and protect its network.
- Liron Shapira puts the odds of a major Bitcoin crash from AI risks at 40% over two years.
- Traders face risks of Bitcoin prices falling on AI fears before any real attack happens.
Bitcoin does not need to be “broken” by artificial intelligence to face a major market shock. The bigger risk is that fear of an AI-driven attack triggers a sell-off before the network has time to upgrade.
That concern is at the center of a public debate between Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Doom Debates host Liron Shapira. On X, Shapira argues that AI advances will put pressure on Bitcoin’s security and expose weaknesses in the network.
Shapira Sees 40% Chance of a Major Crash
Shapira initially put the odds of Bitcoin suffering a 50% or larger price crash within the next two years at 50% because of AI-related threats. He also pointed to falling miner rewards as another risk for BTC.
After Buterin’s response, Shapira lowered his estimate to 40%, saying Buterin’s and Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments changed his view.
The debate highlights a key risk for traders: Bitcoin does not need to suffer an actual AI attack for prices to fall. Fear alone can trigger heavy selling.
Vitalik Bets on Bitcoin’s Ability to Adapt
Buterin takes the opposite view. He argues that Bitcoin’s ability to adapt matters more than whether its current security assumptions remain unchanged.
Buterin said he is optimistic about cybersecurity over the long term. His main concern is whether Bitcoin can manage a fast transition if new threats appear.
He argued that Bitcoin can respond to many network-level attacks without needing broad social agreement. Developers can upgrade clients, while miners and mining pools can change their systems to deal with new threats.
Buterin also said the chance of an actual break in Bitcoin’s hash functions or proof-of-work is “tiny.”
He added that his own holdings reflect his confidence. Around 90% of his net worth is tied to the belief that major blockchain networks will withstand future security challenges.
The Bigger Risk: Speed
Meanwhile, Vista Labs argued that AI does not need to break Bitcoin’s SHA-256 encryption or proof-of-work. Instead, AI can shorten the time between finding a weakness and exploiting it.
That creates a race between attackers and Bitcoin developers. If an attacker finds and exploits a weakness faster than the network can agree on and deploy an upgrade, Bitcoin faces a serious problem.
The risks include private-key security, mining infrastructure, network software, and consensus systems. An attacker does not need to defeat Bitcoin’s cryptography to cause major disruption.
Why Traders Should Watch Closely
Shapira described scenarios including repeated attacks on Bitcoin clients and a large double-spend attack involving compromised mining pools. These remain hypothetical. But markets often react to perceived risks before an actual event happens.
For traders, AI-security concerns may therefore drive volatility even without a confirmed attack. Developer warnings, security incidents, mining upgrades, and research into AI-driven attacks are signals worth watching.
Related: Anthony Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Could Rally Again by October
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