- Kalshi gives Bitcoin 40% odds of reclaiming $100K by the end of 2026, just 7% before June.
- Strategy spent $2.54B on 34,000 BTC last week, totaling nearly $10B in purchases this year.
- Bitcoin eyes $73K support, with $80K as key level to unlock move toward $100K.
Bitcoin may have taken a beating recently, but traders on prediction platforms aren’t ready to give up on a six-figure comeback. According to Kalshi, one of the leading prediction markets, there is currently a 40% probability that Bitcoin will reclaim the $100,000 mark before the end of 2026. The odds are much lower in the near term, with only a 7% chance of it happening before June. Polymarket is telling a similar story, also pricing the likelihood at around 39% for the year.
The backdrop for these bets is a brutal few months for Bitcoin. After touching a high of around $126,000 late in 2025, the cryptocurrency shed roughly half its value, dropping to around $60,000 before staging a modest recovery.
The Bulls Are Still Buying
Not everyone is rattled by the pullback. Strategy founder Michael Saylor has been one of the most aggressive buyers through the dip. His firm acquired more than 34,000 BTC last week alone, spending approximately $2.54 billion. In total, Strategy has purchased close to $10 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2026.
Saylor himself has called the current downturn a milder correction compared to previous cycles, suggesting the worst may already be behind us.
What Could Push Bitcoin Higher
Several analysts say the path to $100,000 depends on a few key conditions lining up. If the Federal Reserve moves toward cutting interest rates and ETF inflows continue picking up, Bitcoin could have the fuel it needs for a strong rally. Regulatory progress, particularly around legislation like the CLARITY ACT, could also act as a major confidence booster for institutional players sitting on the sidelines.
Technically, experts are watching the $73,000 level closely as an important support zone, with $80,000 seen as the critical threshold that needs to flip for a serious push toward six figures.
However, one analyst said that Bitcoin has fallen below its Realized Price in every major bear cycle, 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, meaning each big drop has eventually revisited that level, which is currently around $56K.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Stay Above $78,000 After Ceasefire Boost?
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