- Bitcoin holds above $57K support even as new whales remain 14% below their average purchase price.
- Negative exchange netflows and low MVRV suggest Bitcoin still has room to extend its recovery.
- Analysts say stronger institutional demand could drive Bitcoin’s next major bull market.
Bitcoin held above a key on-chain support level even as some of its newest large investors remained under water. CryptoQuant data showed recently acquired whale wallets were still sitting on paper losses after buying near recent highs, while Bitcoin continued trading above the $57,000 realized price for Binance users, a level analysts view as important market support.
CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said newer whale wallets, defined as those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, had an average cost basis of $69,900 as of June 30. With Bitcoin trading around $60,100, the group was sitting on an unrealized loss of about 14%. He said these investors could add selling pressure if Bitcoin rebounds toward their average entry price.
New Whales Face Growing Pressure
The analyst said Bitcoin’s newest whale investors are still sitting on large paper losses even though the cryptocurrency remains above a key support level. He said these large investors are nearly $10,000 below their average purchase price after many bought Bitcoin near recent highs.
Taha noted that other major holder groups remain in a stronger position. Miner whales have a realized price of $53,373, while long-term holder whales sit at $47,688. Binance users have a realized price of about $57,070, and Bitcoin continuing to trade above that level suggests the broader market remains on relatively solid footing.
On-Chain Data Leans Slightly Bullish
CryptoQuant analyst CoinNiel said on-chain data suggests selling pressure is beginning to ease. Bitcoin exchange netflows turned negative by 907 BTC after recording an inflow of 2,724 BTC earlier, indicating that more coins are leaving exchanges than being deposited for potential sale.
At the same time, open interest rose 4.75% to $21.58 billion and funding rates edged higher, showing traders are increasing their positions. Even so, CoinNiel said leverage remains at manageable levels rather than showing signs of excessive speculation.
He also noted that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stands at 1.129, a relatively low reading that suggests the market is not significantly overvalued and may still have room to advance.
Institutions Remain Key to Next Rally
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said Bitcoin could still be heading for another major rally, although he expects future gains to depend on much stronger institutional demand than in previous market cycles. “Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead,” he said.
Separately, analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin is trading below its 200-week simple moving average of about $63,500, a level that has historically marked periods of market weakness before strong recoveries. While the indicator does not guarantee another rally, some traders see the current price range as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin gradually rather than evidence of a lasting downturn.
Related: Why Bitcoin Usually Rises in July and What Traders Should Expect This Time?
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