XRP Price Prediction: XRP Hits Its Lowest Level Since 2024 as Three Separate Pressures Land at Once

• XRP broke below $1 on August 12 for the first time since November 2024, with the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $1.0025 as the last technical floor
• The Coreum-XRP bridge was drained of 200,000 XRP on August 9 through a relayer logic flaw, with the bridge now halted
• Large XRP wallets holding over 1M XRP grew by 32 in three months despite a 29% market cap decline, per Santiment

The XRP price prediction points to $1.0537 on the bullish side and $0.95 on the bearish side, with XRP breaking below $1 for the first time since November 2024 after touching a low of $0.99. 

XRP Price Analysis: $1 Breaks as the Bollinger Band Becomes the Last Floor

XRP broke the $1 psychological floor that had held since November 2024, with today’s session printing a low of $1.016 before recovering to $1.0189. The Bollinger Band lower boundary at $1.0025 is now the only technical support remaining below the round number.

All four EMAs slope downward above price in a stacked bearish configuration: the 20-day at $1.0537, 50-day at $1.0939, 100-day at $1.1746, and 200-day at $1.3659. The Bollinger Band midline at $1.0590 aligns closely with the 20-day EMA, making that zone the first resistance cluster any recovery needs to clear.

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The break matters beyond the chart. It’s a psychological reset for holders who bought during the 2024 and 2025 cycles, and historically, breaks of major round numbers in declining assets either accelerate the decline or trigger sharp reversals as capitulation buyers step in.

XRP Support and Resistance Levels, August 12, 2026

XRP News: Coreum Bridge Drained of 200K XRP — What Actually Happened?

The Coreum-XRP bridge was drained of approximately 200,000 XRP on August 9 through a logic flaw in the bridge’s relayer code, a set of programs that verify and approve cross-chain deposits, not through the DefaultRipple account flag that initial warnings blamed.

How the Exploit Actually Worked

The attacker exploited a gap in how relayers verify deposits. They sent the bridge’s own wrapped token between two wallets they controlled, attaching a bridge deposit memo to the transaction. Because the bridge issues that token, the transfer showed up in its transaction history.

The relayer code checks for payments in the bridge’s history but never verifies the destination was actually the bridge itself. It read each self-payment as a legitimate deposit and attested to it. Once enough relayers attested, the contract minted the attacker a matching balance, and the entire 200,000 XRP drained was simply the legitimate withdrawal of that fabricated balance.

Why the Initial DefaultRipple Warning Was Wrong

The widely shared initial warning attributed the drain to the DefaultRipple flag and partial payment loops. On-chain analysis showed neither was true: native XRP cannot ripple through trust lines by design, and none of the 94 payments used the partial payment flag. The bridge signed every payment itself through a 17-of-28 multisig quorum, meaning the flaw lived in the relayer logic on the Coreum side, not the XRP Ledger.

The bridge has since been halted. Roughly 4 million wrapped tokens remain unsold in the attacker’s wallets, and the drained XRP was forwarded through fresh wallets to older staging accounts in what analysts describe as a standard laundering pattern.

XRP Analysis: Large Holders Keep Buying Despite the Price Drop

Santiment flagged on August 11 that the number of wallets holding over 1 million XRP has grown by 32 in three months, even as XRP’s market cap fell 29% over the same period. That points to a specific market dynamic: stronger, more patient hands absorbing supply as smaller holders exit during the decline.

RLUSD has also grown into a meaningful institutional stablecoin over the same stretch, and Ripple’s payments, custody, and tokenization rails continue tying the XRP Ledger to real settlement use cases even as price underperforms.

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When large holder counts rise during a sustained price decline, it historically signals the asset is moving from weak hands to strong ones, a transition that tends to precede rather than follow meaningful recoveries.

XRP ETF Flows: Zero Inflows as Weekly Magnitude Keeps Shrinking

XRP spot ETFs recorded zero net inflow for the week of August 11 through the first two sessions, continuing a trend of shrinking weekly flow that has been visible since May. Weekly inflows peaked at $60.50M in mid-May, then compressed through $22.04M, $15.20M, $14.86M, $8.15M, and $1.01M in successive weeks before this week’s flat start. Cumulative net inflows hold at $1.51B with total net assets at $943.11M, just below the $1B mark.

Three sessions remain in the current week, but the trajectory of declining weekly flow combined with the $1 break suggests institutional appetite for XRP via ETFs is cooling at the same moment the price is under its most significant pressure of the year.

XRP Price Prediction: Upside and Downside Targets

Bullish Case, Target: $1.0537 (20-day EMA)

The $1 break proves to be a capitulation wick rather than a sustained breakdown, and XRP closes back above $1.0025 on a daily basis. Large holder accumulation documented by Santiment absorbs the available sell pressure, and the Coreum bridge exploit proves to be a contained third-party incident with no impact on XRP’s core infrastructure. Price recovers toward the Bollinger midline and 20-day EMA at $1.0537 as the first meaningful recovery target.

Bearish Case, Risk Level: $0.95 (Below Round Number)

The Bollinger Band lower boundary at $1.0025 fails to hold on a daily close and XRP establishes itself below $1 for the first time since November 2024. ETF weekly flows recording zero for a second consecutive week signals institutional demand has fully dried up, and the bridge exploit weighs on broader sentiment around XRP’s ecosystem safety. Price extends toward $0.95 as the next area without clear technical support.

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Conclusion

XRP’s break below $1 is the result of three separate pressures landing at once rather than a single clean catalyst, which makes the setup harder to read than a typical technical breakdown. The bridge exploit and fading ETF flows are the visible bearish forces, but large holder accumulation running in the opposite direction is a genuine counterweight, not just noise. 

The Bollinger Band lower boundary at $1.0025 is the level that decides which force wins first: hold it and $1.0537 becomes the next real test, lose it and $0.95 opens up with no clear technical floor in between.

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