- Galaxy Research puts CLARITY Act passage odds at just 30% for this year.
- Polymarket puts the odds at roughly 39% for the bill becoming law in 2026 alone.
- JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citi unveiled a shared tokenized deposit network.
The CLARITY Act’s odds of passing this year just got worse. Galaxy Research downgraded its chances to 30% from 50%, citing a tight Senate vote margin and lingering Republican opposition. Prediction market Polymarket currently puts the odds at 39% for passage sometime in 2026, though some analysts think the real number may be even lower.
The timing concerns are real. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said this week he doesn’t expect a vote before the August recess, the window many consider the most realistic chance for passage. After that, the legislative calendar tightens considerably, making it harder to find the 60 votes needed to move the bill forward.
Institutions Aren’t Slowing Down
Yet crypto analyst Dan Gambardello argues the falling odds don’t match what the world’s biggest financial institutions are actually doing. If regulation were truly at risk of failing, the question becomes: why does the buildout keep accelerating?
JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citi just announced a shared tokenized deposit network. Visa and Mastercard launched a new stablecoin backed by more than 140 companies. Morgan Stanley stood up a national trust bank and completed a crypto rollout.
Charles Schwab is openly targeting Coinbase’s market share. The DTCC, the actual clearing infrastructure behind Wall Street, is running production trades of tokenized securities this month. Vanguard, the firm that blocked Bitcoin ETFs back in 2024, just posted its first-ever Head of Digital Assets role.
Samsung announced native stablecoin support inside Samsung Wallet. The Fraternal Order of Police, representing 382,000 members, endorsed the bill just this morning. And the crypto industry is the single largest corporate political spender of the entire 2026 election cycle.
Main Argument
The analysts’ argument is that institutions with the best legal and political information don’t build settlement networks, trust banks, and multi-year roadmaps for a regulatory framework they expect to fail.
Money Is Also Flowing Into Washington
The crypto industry has put $189 million into the 2026 midterms, described as the single largest corporate political spend of the cycle. Industry super PAC Fair Shake held nearly $127 million in cash at the end of June, ranking second only to the main Senate Republican PAC, with Ripple alone contributing $48 million.
What It Means for the Market
For now, the practical implication is straightforward. A delayed CLARITY Act likely keeps regulatory uncertainty in place longer, which could mean elevated volatility for crypto-linked stocks and tokens in the near term. But the broader institutional buildout suggests these companies are positioning for where the industry is headed regardless of exactly when, or even if, this particular bill crosses the finish line this year.
Related: CLARITY Act Negotiations Face New Ethics Challenge in Senate
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