The National Football League has urged the U.S. Supreme Court to review whether sports prediction contracts qualify as gambling or financial derivatives. The league supports New Jersey regulators, who oppose Kalshi’s sports markets and seek state authority over them. The dispute could reshape how prediction platforms operate across the United States.
NFL Questions Federal Oversight
In its Supreme Court filing, the NFL argued that sports contracts differ from traditional financial swaps. The league said swaps generally protect participants from existing financial risks. However, sports prediction contracts involve people wagering on events without financial exposure to those outcomes.
Significantly, NFL-related markets generated nearly $2 billion during the season’s first Sunday. Overall prediction market trading surpassed $25 billion during 2025.
Kalshi had also surpassed $173 billion in cumulative trading volume by August 2026. Consequently, the Supreme Court’s decision could affect a rapidly expanding market.
Prediction Markets Face Growing Pressure
Besides, the NFL wants platforms to adopt safeguards similar to state-regulated sportsbooks. These measures could include age restrictions and limits on sensitive sports contracts.
Additionally, the league has raised concerns about markets involving individual plays and player injuries. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has indicated that sports leagues should influence integrity protections.
However, other leagues have embraced prediction platforms through partnerships and licensing agreements. MLB, NHL, and MLS have established relationships with major prediction market operators.
Moreover, Kalshi argues that federal oversight creates consistent national standards. Hence, the Supreme Court case could define the boundary between financial markets and sports wagering.
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