- Rep. Bryan Steil introduced a bill banning members of Congress and their families from political prediction market bets.
- Violators would face fines, forfeit profits, and be barred from wagering on government-related event contracts.
- The proposal exempts White House officials, drawing scrutiny amid broader ethics reform efforts.
Republican Representative Bryan Steil of Wisconsin has introduced legislation that would bar members of Congress and their families from profiting from prediction markets tied to political events and government actions. The proposal, however, does not apply to White House officials, including President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance.
Bill Targets Lawmakers and Their Families
Steil, who chairs the House Administration Committee and the House’s digital assets efforts, unveiled the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on June 18. The bill would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from placing wagers on prediction markets linked to government policies, government actions, or political outcomes.
Under the proposal, violators would face a civil penalty of at least $2,000 or 10% of the value of the prohibited transaction, whichever is greater. They would also be required to forfeit any profits earned from the trade. The legislation would take effect 180 days after becoming law.
The bill does not prohibit lawmakers from using prediction market platforms altogether. It only restricts wagers involving political and government-related events. Bets on non-political events would remain allowed.
Related: CFTC Proposes New Prediction Market Rules to Define Allowed Bets
Insider Trading Concerns Fuel Push
The legislation is the latest effort in Congress to address concerns that public officials could use non-public information to profit from prediction markets. Steil said the measure is intended to reassure the public that lawmakers are not benefiting from insider knowledge.
Pressure for reform intensified after prosecutors accused a U.S. soldier of earning more than $400,000 through prediction market trades tied to the anticipated removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The case sparked renewed debate over insider information and market integrity.
Several competing proposals have emerged this year. Some would ban specific categories of prediction market contracts, while others focus on disclosure requirements or broader restrictions on government officials.
White House Exemption Draws Scrutiny
Although the bill imposes restrictions on lawmakers and their families, it does not extend to White House officials. The omission has drawn attention because other proposals in Congress take a broader approach.
One example is the bipartisan PREDICT Act. That measure would prohibit the president, vice president, members of Congress, senior federal officials, and their families from participating in prediction markets involving political or policy outcomes.
Regulatory Battle Continues
The proposal arrives amid an ongoing fight over who should regulate prediction markets in the United States. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has argued that it has primary authority over these platforms and has challenged efforts by states to restrict them.
The agency views event contracts as financial products that can be regulated similarly to swaps rather than traditional gambling activities. That position has fueled legal disputes between federal regulators, states, and prediction market operators. Some observers believe the issue could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Related: Gaming Industry Urges Senate to Ban Sports Prediction Markets in CLARITY Act
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