- Vitalik Buterin said AI debates hinge on whether superintelligence is likely to arrive soon.
- Buterin proposed pre-agreed AI warning signs that could justify slowing development if risks grow.
- Buterin said true ASI could replace most human work, but remains uncertain about its arrival.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said the debate over artificial intelligence comes down to one key question: Will artificial superintelligence (ASI) arrive in the near future?
In a post on X, Buterin said supporters of the “AI 2040” view believe some form of superintelligence could emerge by 2040 unless AI development is slowed.
Others disagree. They see AI as another major technology, not a civilization-changing breakthrough. Because of that, they often oppose slowing AI development and believe the risks of ASI are overstated.
Buterin Says He Hasn’t Chosen Either Side
Buterin said he does not fully agree with either camp. If AI turns out to be just another technology, he said he would likely side with critics of AI slowdowns. But if superintelligence becomes likely within the next decade, stronger intervention would make more sense.
Since the future is still uncertain, Buterin said he is not ready to take either extreme position.
Instead, he continues to support his “d/acc” philosophy, which focuses on defensive technologies such as cryptography, secure hardware, pandemic preparedness, public knowledge systems, and food security. He said these investments will remain useful regardless of how AI develops.
Buterin Wants Pre-Agreed AI Warning Signs
Rather than calling for an immediate pause in AI development, Buterin suggested agreeing in advance on warning signs that would justify slowing progress.
Examples include widespread AI-driven job losses, advanced autonomous weapons, or other major disruptions.
He said setting these triggers ahead of time would make future decisions more credible and could help narrow the gap between opposing sides.
Buterin also said social media platforms owned by people like Elon Musk could help host broader public discussions on AI governance instead of leaving decisions mainly to governments, tech companies, and other powerful institutions.
Wall Street Analyst Pushes Back
A community member, Harry Hawk, responded that he agrees with AI researcher Yann LeCun, who believes future AGI or ASI systems will be built with safety standards similar to those used in aviation.
Hawk argued that fears of AI taking over society or eliminating all jobs are exaggerated. Like the Industrial Revolution, he said, AI will replace some jobs but also create new ones.
He also questioned the idea of a rapid AI breakthrough, saying progress remains gradual and it is still unclear whether large language models will lead to AGI or ASI.
Buterin Says Job Growth and ASI Can’t Both Be True
Buterin replied that believing AI will continue creating jobs is inconsistent with the idea of true artificial superintelligence.
He argued that if ASI can perform every task better than humans, companies would have little reason to hire people for productive work.
People could still do activities for fun or personal fulfillment, he said, but those would be hobbies rather than economic jobs.
Buterin concluded that rejecting AI slowdowns is reasonable if someone believes ASI is still far away or may never exist. However, he said he is not confident enough to make that assumption and believes carefully designed safeguards should remain on the table, even if every proposal has tradeoffs.
Related: Vitalik Buterin Unveils Lean Ethereum Vision to Slash Onchain State
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