- China keeps mainland crypto restrictions in place as reopening talk draws more attention.
- Chee says a controlled China reopening could support Bitcoin demand and a Supercycle.
- Bitcoin and Ether could benefit first, while Solana depends on approved products and demand.
China’s potential return to crypto trading has drawn fresh attention after Solana Company CEO Joseph Chee said a controlled reopening could spark a Bitcoin Supercycle. The forecast hinges on a policy reversal, with mainland restrictions still in force.
During an October 6 appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia, Chee said broader crypto access would depend on China finding a way to manage the associated risks. He also pointed to Hong Kong as a testing ground for the country’s approach to digital assets. Chee gave no timetable for reopening crypto access in mainland China.
The forecast contrasts with recent official messaging. A September 28 Ministry of State Security warning reiterated that crypto business remains illegal and highlighted risks involving illicit transfers across borders.
Can China Reopen Crypto Trading?
Those restrictions make changes to China’s rules the first requirement for reopening. Its February 6, 2026, regulatory notice maintained prohibitions on domestic exchange services, token fundraising and crypto financial products. That framework replaced the 2021 notice while preserving its restrictive approach.
It also prevents financial institutions from providing accounts and settlement for crypto businesses. A broad reopening therefore requires revised rules covering trading, custody, eligible investors and lawful funding channels.
Regulators have identified customer identification, money laundering and unauthorized cross-border transfers as central concerns. Any new access model must address those objections and specify how capital controls apply.
The current framework allows certain approved tokenization activities through specified financial infrastructure. That exception supports controlled innovation without granting general access to Bitcoin trading.
Hong Kong offers a separate regulatory example. Its platform licensing regime began in June 2023, while stablecoin issuer rules took effect in August 2025. However, the Securities and Futures Commission requires platforms to prevent mainland residents from accessing their virtual asset services.
How Would Bitcoin Prices Respond?
Removing those barriers would give mainland investors new routes into Bitcoin. Purchases through licensed exchanges or investment funds could lift demand, although prices can react to policy expectations before money reaches the market.
Broader crypto prices could also benefit if buyers spread allocations across permitted assets. Access limited to Bitcoin products or institutions offers a narrower boost than open retail trading.
The scale remains unknown. Without eligibility rules or allocation limits, potential inflows cannot be calculated reliably. Moving existing holdings between venues also increases recorded activity without necessarily creating fresh buying pressure.
An initial rally can also reverse if the final rules disappoint market expectations. Product restrictions, investment quotas or delayed bank access can reduce the demand that traders anticipated when a reopening story first began circulating online.
Could China Trigger a Bitcoin Supercycle?
Whether that buying lasts is central to Chee’s Supercycle argument. A Bitcoin bull run can begin with a surge in demand, while a longer expansion depends on sustained investment and adoption.
The evidence would include repeated net inflows, broader participation, and buying that survives corrections. One announcement, a temporary volume spike, or rising leveraged positions cannot establish that pattern.
Even substantial Chinese demand faces competing forces. Selling elsewhere, tighter financial conditions and leveraged liquidations can offset new inflows, leaving the Supercycle thesis dependent on both domestic access and the wider market.
Which Cryptocurrencies Could Benefit Most?
The reach of that expansion also depends on which assets attract new investment. Bitcoin and Ether appear the clearest initial candidates, given the regulated spot ETFs tracking both assets that HKEX introduced in April 2024.
Solana also has a conditional case if an opening permits investments tied to public blockchain applications. Its prospects depend on approved products and actual use, rather than the reopening headline alone.
Chee leads Solana Company, a listed treasury business that accumulates SOL. That commercial exposure gives context to his optimism; his comments convey no official Chinese endorsement of the token.
Would Liquidity and Institutional Demand Rise?
Demand for those assets also affects the services supporting their trade. More buyers, sellers and intermediaries can deepen liquidity, while licensed exchanges, custodians and asset managers gain potential customers.
Institutional allocations require more than permission to trade. Funds need suitable custody arrangements, compliance approval and investment mandates that allow exposure.
Market liquidity is separate from global money supply. Purchases funded from existing cash or sales of other investments redistribute capital; they do not automatically create new money.
The size of any global effect therefore depends on net allocations and permitted cross-border flows. Monetary easing and a crypto reopening are separate policy decisions, so one should not be assumed to accompany the other.
Should Investors Wait for Policy Confirmation?
However, buying early offers exposure to a potential rally but risks a narrower opening or no change. Waiting reduces regulatory uncertainty but can mean entering after prices rise.
The clearest signals are published mainland rule changes, operating licenses, defined investor eligibility, and functioning banking channels. After launch, subscriptions and net inflows provide stronger evidence of additional demand than trading volume alone.
A consultation or pilot proposal is an early signal. Binding rules and an operational investment route provide stronger confirmation that investors can actually participate.
For now, positioning around China’s return remains a bet on an unconfirmed policy scenario. The Supercycle case becomes more credible when legal access produces sustained, measurable investment.
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