- Google’s early investments have historically turned into massive long-term gains
- In 2023, Google reportedly invested $3B in Anthropic and recently committed another $40B.
- Google’s 14% stake could be worth a massive $112 billion at an $800 billion valuation.
Analysts are pointing to Google’s past investment wins to explain why its growing stake in Anthropic could become one of the biggest venture bets in tech.
Market commentator Bull Theory said Google has repeatedly turned early capital moves into massive assets. He cited Google’s 2006 purchase of YouTube for $1.65 billion.
At the time, critics called the deal overpriced, but today, YouTube is estimated by some analysts to be worth around $550 billion and generates roughly $50 billion in yearly revenue.
He also pointed to Google’s 2013 $258 million investment in Uber, which was reportedly worth more than $5 billion by the time Uber went public.
Another example was Google’s 2015 $1 billion investment in SpaceX. With SpaceX recently valued at nearly $350 billion in private markets, bulls estimate the stake at more than $21 billion.
Anthropic Stake Could Become Huge
Bull Theory said Google invested $3 billion in Anthropic in 2023 and later committed up to another $40 billion.
Anthropic is currently valued at around $380 billion in private markets, with reports that investors have discussed funding at up to $800 billion. Google is said to own 14% of Anthropic.
At a $380 billion valuation, that stake would be worth about $53 billion. At an $800 billion valuation, it would rise to roughly $112 billion.
Rival on Paper, Revenue in Practice
The deal looks unusual because Anthropic’s Claude model competes directly with Google’s Gemini models. But analysts say Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai may be solving two problems at once.
Recently, Google committed $10 billion in cash at a $350 billion valuation, while another $30 billion would reportedly be released only if Anthropic meets agreed-upon targets. This gives Google upside exposure while limiting early capital risk.
More importantly, Claude traffic can run through Google Cloud infrastructure. If customers use Claude on Google systems, Google can earn cloud revenue even when users choose a rival model over Gemini. In simple terms, Google may profit from both ownership and usage.
Compute Control May Be the Real Prize
The reported agreement includes around 5 gigawatts of TPU compute tied to Google’s systems over the next five years. Because advanced AI models need huge amounts of chips and power, by anchoring Anthropic to its compute stack, Google strengthens demand for its own hardware and cloud network.
For enterprise users already building products on Claude, the deal also lowers concerns about long-term compute supply. Large corporate customers want a stable infrastructure before committing serious workloads.
Analysts say this may be less about backing a competitor and more about controlling where AI workloads run.
Related: Anthropic Unveils Claude Opus 4.7 With Stronger Coding and Vision
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