- Polymarket gives 32% chance of normal Hormuz traffic by April, rising to 82% by June.
- Tanker traffic remains below 5% of pre-war volumes as BIMCO advises vessels to avoid the area.
- Freight rates for large crude carriers hit a record $423,736 per day on rerouting costs.
A ceasefire was announced, and Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened to commercial shipping, triggering a sharp reaction in energy markets, with Brent crude dropping 12% in a single session. However, the reopening proved short-lived. Tankers attempting to transit were forced to turn back, and restrictions were reimposed the same day.
What Traders Are Betting
On Polymarket, traders give only 32% chance that shipping traffic returns to normal by the end of April, rising to 70% by late May and 82% by June. Kalshi, tracking the seven-day average of tanker transits against a benchmark of 60 ships, put the odds at just 67% by June 1.
The consensus is not that the Strait stays closed permanently. It is expected that any reopening will be gradual and unstable. Trump’s claim that the Strait could reopen very soon has not moved the needle.
The Physical Reality
BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, has advised all vessels to avoid the area entirely, citing an uncleared mine threat. Tanker traffic remains below 5% of pre-war volumes. Vessel-tracking footage shows tankers attempting transit and reversing course mid-journey.
Iran imposed crypto tolls of approximately $1 per barrel after the ceasefire, collecting up to $2 million per vessel in Bitcoin, yuan, or USDT. On April 18, Tehran reimposed restrictions entirely.
Freight rates for very large crude carriers hit $423,736 per day, the highest ever recorded, as tankers reroute through the Red Sea and around Africa. Goldman Sachs warns Brent could stay above $100 per barrel for much of the year.
The Broader Bets
Myriad prices a 63.5% chance that Brent spikes to $120. Only 29% of traders expect Iran to agree to unrestricted shipping this month. A 70.5% probability is assigned to Trump announcing the end of military operations before June, though he told reporters this week he will not be rushed.
Related: Global Market Brace for Volatile Week as U.S.-Iran Talks in Doubt
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