SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic: Which IPO Could Be the Biggest Winner?

• SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could lead one of the largest IPO waves in history. 
• Kevin O’Leary favors exposure to all three rather than betting on a single AI leader.
• Upcoming AI IPOs could shift investor capital away from today’s market leaders.

Three of the most anticipated public listings in years are taking shape. Investors are already debating which company could emerge as the biggest winner.

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all expected to reach valuations of $1 trillion or more. Together, they could fuel one of the largest IPO waves in market history. While some investors are searching for a single champion, others believe the opportunity extends across all three companies.

Investor and entrepreneur Kevin O’Leary recently weighed in on the debate. Rather than picking one winner, he said he prefers exposure to all three.

According to O’Leary, SpaceX offers access to Elon Musk’s vision and Starlink, the satellite internet business that has already become highly profitable. He also praised Anthropic’s Claude AI assistant, saying it quickly became a daily tool across his organization. At the same time, he noted that OpenAI remains one of the most influential companies in artificial intelligence.

“The smarter bet is often on the entire trend, not a single stock,” O’Leary said. In his view, the future remains too uncertain to confidently predict one ultimate winner.

SpaceX Could Deliver the Largest IPO Ever

Among the three companies, SpaceX appears poised to make the biggest impact when it reaches public markets.

The company is targeting a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, and it plans to raise roughly $75 billion through its IPO. This would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019 and become the largest IPO in history.

Unlike the AI firms, SpaceX already operates several large revenue-generating businesses. Starlink alone contributes around 58% of company’s revenue and has become a major source of profitability.

And there are also several other growth drivers. These include satellite internet, launch services, government contracts, and future projects tied to Starship and AI infrastructure.

But some observers argue that the valuation already prices in years of future success. They note that significant milestones for Starship and other long-term initiatives must be achieved to justify a valuation that is approaching $2 trillion.

OpenAI and Anthropic Offer Direct AI Exposure

While SpaceX is a broader technology and infrastructure company, OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to become the largest pure-play AI investments available to public market investors.

OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, reportedly filed confidential IPO paperwork this month. The company is said to be targeting a valuation close to $1 trillion. Its growth has been rapid, with hundreds of millions of users and sharply rising annualized revenue.

Anthropic, the company behind Claude, has also reportedly filed confidential IPO documents. It has achieved a funding round that puts its business value at $965 billion.

Unlike tech giants such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, OpenAI and Anthropic would give investors direct exposure to AI model development and commercialization.

That distinction could be significant. Until now, most investors could only gain indirect exposure through major shareholders and strategic partners.

Could New AI IPOs Pressure Existing Tech Stocks?

Not everyone believes these IPOs will create only winners. BCA Research chief strategist Noah Weisberger argues that public listings from OpenAI and Anthropic could pressure some of today’s biggest AI-related stocks.

For years, investors seeking AI exposure have poured money into companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, and Micron. Many of these firms have posted substantial gains as the AI boom accelerated.

Nvidia alone has risen more than 1,000% over the past five years.

Weisberger believes some investors could sell portions of their existing AI holdings to buy newly listed AI leaders. He argues that the IPOs may reduce the “scarcity value” currently enjoyed by public AI beneficiaries.

So capital could shift away from companies that have been the primary vehicles for AI investment. And, the impact may be amplified because several tech giants already hold major stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic.

Amazon has invested billions of dollars in Anthropic. The company recently reported $16.8 billion in pre-tax gains tied to that investment. Alphabet disclosed $37.7 billion in net gains, driven largely by unrealized gains from private holdings, including Anthropic.

Meanwhile, Microsoft owns 27% stake in OpenAI following the company’s restructuring into a for-profit entity.

Trillion-Dollar Test for AI Valuations

Despite the excitement, some experts see these IPOs as a major test of whether current AI valuations can hold up in public markets.

Altogether, the three companies represent more than $4 trillion in private-market value. That is roughly equal to 6% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization.

Researchers at Northeastern University have suggested that the IPO wave could serve as a reality check for investors who have pushed AI-related valuations sharply higher since late 2022.

Finance professor Karthik Krishnan noted that IPOs often experience an early surge before settling into more sustainable valuations. Public markets, he said, eventually focus on long-term fundamentals.

While Krishnan believes AI companies have demonstrated real economic value, he questioned whether current valuations fully reflect future earnings potential or are being driven by investor enthusiasm.

Who Has the Best Chance of Winning?

The answer will depend on how investors define success. SpaceX looks best positioned to lead in IPO size, capital raised and immediate market impact. The company combines profitable operations with exposure to some of the world’s most ambitious technology projects.

On the other hand, OpenAI has the strongest consumer brand thanks to ChatGPT’s global reach. Anthropic, meanwhile, has gained momentum among enterprise customers through Claude.

Still, O’Leary’s broader point may prove the most important. Investors may not need to choose a single winner.

Related: Anthropic Says AI May One Day Create Its Own Successors