- Arthur Hayes says the Trump-Iran war triggered Bitcoin’s latest bull-market setup.
- Hayes links AI spending and infrastructure demand to rising fiat liquidity.
- Bitcoin could benefit as dollar and yuan credit creation expands, Hayes says.
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, has linked the Trump-Iran war, artificial intelligence spending, and rising fiat liquidity to a broader bull-market thesis in crypto. In his latest essay, Hayes argued that Bitcoin’s current market setup began after the United States attacked Iran on February 28.
Hayes framed the conflict as more than a geopolitical event. He said the war exposed deeper weaknesses in global supply chains, reserve management, energy security, and national infrastructure planning.
Iran War Raises Pressure on Global Supply Chains
According to Hayes, the conflict showed how many countries still depend on U.S.-protected trade routes for key commodities. He argued that disruptions around energy, fertilizer, and food shipments could force governments to rethink their investment priorities.
Hayes said many sovereign states had placed surplus capital into dollar-based financial assets instead of physical infrastructure. These include pipelines, storage systems, defense capacity, trade routes, and commodity stockpiles.
That model, he argued, becomes weaker when war threatens the movement of oil, fuel, fertilizer, and food. As a result, governments may shift capital away from U.S. Treasuries and equities toward infrastructure and essential reserves.
Hayes said this could pressure U.S. financial markets because foreign investors own large amounts of dollar assets. He added that U.S. policymakers may respond by using dollar swap lines or by easing banking rules.
Under his view, swap lines would allow allied countries to borrow dollars instead of selling U.S. assets. Meanwhile, relaxed capital rules could help banks hold larger Treasury and securities balances.
AI Spending Adds Another Liquidity Channel
Hayes also connected the war narrative to the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure. He said the United States and China now treat AI leadership as a national security priority.
According to Hayes, both countries are backing heavy spending on data centers, electricity generation, chips, and AI-related infrastructure. He noted that U.S. AI capital expenditure has so far been funded mainly by major software companies’ cash flows.
Source: Substack
However, Hayes said future investment may require greater use of credit. In China, he argued that banks have been redirected from real estate financing toward technology lending.
He described this as a policy-backed cycle of credit creation. In his view, central and commercial banks are helping support AI development through looser financial conditions and expanded lending.
Source: Substack
Hayes also said AI competition could make spending self-reinforcing. As models improve, previous investments may lose value quickly, pushing companies to spend more to stay competitive.
Bitcoin Bull Case Rests on Fiat Expansion
Hayes’ crypto argument centers on liquidity. He said war spending, AI capital expenditure, energy investment, and infrastructure rebuilding could increase dollar and yuan creation.
Bitcoin is presented as a key beneficiary of that fiat expansion. Hayes said Bitcoin has outperformed major risky assets since February 28, including gold and U.S. technology stocks.
He also stated that Bitcoin bottomed near $60K earlier this year. Hayes argued that a return toward $126K is likely if liquidity continues to rise. Hayes further said Bitcoin could gain momentum above $90K.
He argued that call option sellers may be forced to cover positions if that level breaks. Beyond Bitcoin, Hayes mentioned Hyperliquid, Zcash, and Near Protocol. Still, Bitcoin remained the central asset in his broader liquidity thesis.
Overall, Hayes argued that war, AI competition, and national infrastructure spending could keep financial conditions loose. In that environment, he said crypto markets may continue receiving support from expanding fiat liquidity.
Related: ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, and Gemini Predict Scenarios of XRP Breakout Ahead of May 14 CLARITY Act Vote
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
